Michael Camiolo

06:01 pm: Mets game next week?
Anyone up to see a Mets game next week either Monday or Wednesday?

01:07 am: Should I have a late new years resolution to
Drop down to 130?

11:44 pm: I'm right, the WSJ's wrong.
"The global credit crisis and the ensuing economic slump we are now entering have both ultimate and proximate causes. The ultimate cause was the ingrained social behavior of the U.S., the U.K. and many other economies over the past two decades that put instant gratification of consumption over the ability to pay for it. Thrift gave way to borrowing and excessive spending"

Mr. Roche is wrong.

In early-mid 2000, the common consumer was significantly richer than he once was. Historically, a working individual wouldn't have an accurate idea as to how much his pension was worth. Now with 401k's; a 50 year old worker could see they have $250,000 in their retirement fund. Second, thanks to Zillow, they could also see their house is worth $250,000. Now their a 1/2 millionaire... aka RICH!!!!!

So of course they start spending, and stop saving. When you have a 1/2 million in the bank... your RICH!!!

Article

09:06 pm: Another $50 billion gone...
Story link.

Basically, Bernard Madoff ran a giant Ponzi scheme; in which a bunch of individuals, (and some companies, including the Mets) invested with him. Their total loss is thought to be $50 billion. There's probably a bunch of individuals with a significant amount of their assets invested with him.

So as you all save and invest. Diversify. Also, if it seems to good; it probably is.

09:26 am: Damm! I've been to 15 states this year!
And I've still got 4 weeks to go? Think I can make it to NJ and push it to 16?
MA, NY, PA, MD, DE, VA, OH, IN, IL, MO, CO, WY, SD, NE, and MN.

07:51 pm: More financial thoughts
In the past 10 years, we've had quite a few market implosions, from mortgage and internet to the crash caused by Long-Term Capital Management and all the emerging market crashes. It seems like we need better crash planning.

09:20 am: Market measure of risk, Beta
I just posted a question on Facebook, but I'm expanding it here. Beta is the expected return of a stock correlated to the return of the financial market. So stocks with low Beta's outperform the market in down periods, but under perform in up periods. The problem I see is that this is averages. Assuming a graph with individual stock return on the Y axis, and market return on the X.

One stock could have a very constant market return slope, I'll call A. Another (called B) could have sharper tails. Thus A and B could have equal Beta's (due to their equal slopes), but obviously preform different depending on market. This is important because stock A is probably better than stock B.

The only redeeming aspect of B is that it does significantly better than the market during periods of growth. In average periods, or downturns, B does worse. This is really bad, since you don't need as much money during market upturns; but you need more money (and more security) during market downturns).

That's also probably why my cousins decision last year on her daughters gift being a T-bill was better than a share of GE.

01:10 am: The direction he's heading, from Obama's speech
I'm assuming that the contents also serve the purpose of letting America know where he's heading and asking we help him go there. To that end, seeing as I don't know exactly where he's heading, this is my takeaway from his speech. Even though I'm sure you know it, I'm posting it here to share the republican interpretation.
( Read more... )

10:20 am: Buy Low
Quick observation... This is the 'buy low' part of the mantra; "Buy low, sell high".

01:31 pm: Awesome story, but I want to get to the ending.
I have no patience. I hold off watching TV shows (like Hero's, Lost or Enterprise) until they're close to finishing since I can't STAND waiting for the conclusion. Along that vein, I can't wait to see what happens with Wachovia. Will it be bought by Citi, or by Wells Fargo? Will Citi come close to winning in it's demand of $60 billion for interference from Wells Fargo? Heck, I don't even know which jurisdiction this is going to be battled in.

(Oddest fact thus far; Citi got an injunction from an NY State judge. It was later nullified as being out of bounds since the judge issued the injunction in his CT home.

I believe it was instant reply which overturned that order.)